An unprecedented surge in Black voter turnout across the American South is fundamentally reshaping the 2026 midterm political landscape. This massive, highly localized mobilization is defying traditional non-presidential voting patterns and threatening to turn what was expected to be a standard midterm election cycle into a “Blue Tsunami” for Democrats, breaking open what were previously considered safe Republican strongholds.
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On recent podcasts, Nate Silver said his models had a 75% probability of the Dems winning both the house and senate, and then said his models had Hillary at a 75% probability too. He was all “as a poker player, I understand how big of a difference 75% and 100% is.”
what was expected to be a standard midterm election cycle
Did someone skip the last 2 years of news?
Meh, whatever drives it we need to expand the supreme court asap then get cases on the docket that can restore voting rights act provisions, rowe provisions, Chevron doctrine, and on and on. Fuck the heritage foundation scum Nazis.
So…the only reason why black Americans are constantly shit on is because they dont want to vote?
It’s also all the fucking gerrymandering – the harder you gerrymander, the thinner your margins get in the ‘winning’ districts.
Yup. Mathematically, gerrymandering is a combination of packing (putting as many as you can of the opposing side into a concentrated district you lose) and cracking (spreading the opposing side among the remaining districts so that they can’t get a majority of any of them).
If you try to grab too many seats, though, your gerrymandering advantage is diluted in any given district so that you may actually lose a lot in a wave year, more than if you even didn’t gerrymander.
So imagine a state that has 10 districts of 100 usual voters each, 500 of each party. Most years, each party gets 5 out of the 10 seats. But if you’re gerrymandering, you can pack 2 districts 90/10 and build a 60-40 advantage in the other 8, which holds your 8-2 advantage unless the population swings 20 points. Or you can get greedy and try to pack one district 90/10 and build only a 55-45 advantage in the other 9, good for most years but vulnerable to a swing of 10%. At that point, you might have accidentally given the other side a 10-seat sweep in a year where the popular vote goes 560-440, with one district going 99-1 and the other 9 going 52-48 or so.
Most real world gerrymandering isn’t that clean, but the intended goal was to create a bunch of 55-45 districts. And now those districts might actually swing.
good for most years but vulnerable to a swing of 10%
From what I’ve heard, a lot of red states have been very greedy lately – going to 5% or even 2.5% margins in winning districts. And I think 2026 is going to show them what a bad idea that was.
Specifically if there is a higher than expected turnout or swing you can overflow and lose more seats than if you haven’t gerrymandered.
I don’t care about anyone’s vote but yours, Internet stranger. Fuck the news, make sure you’re counted.
I don’t know if the US would allow me to vote as I am a Swede who has never even visited the US
You talkin’ to me? According to BallotTrax, my vote has been received and will be counted (if it hasn’t already been counted).
I voted like 2 weeks ago
Ha! I voted 2 years ago
Double ha, I vote in multiple countries!
I voted in September.
Polls mean shit all if people don’t vote.
The article is about literal votes, not polls…
just vote
Mindlessly repeating “just vote” isn’t going to change anyone’s minds
Which doesn’t really matter here, because I highly doubt anyone on political forums isn’t voting.
But that just makes it even more pointless. Not just pointless, your brain gives a little dopamine release like you did something, which makes you less likely to do something effective.
Like, I fully get the spirit, everyone should vote.
But you’re working against your own interests bud.
Can’t hurt to remind people to vote. I think if we understood voting habits we could’ve never been surprised trump won at any point. Yet most people were.
Democrats are experts at losing elections tho
Especially ones they are structurally prepared to win, like this one. So we are actually on track.
They’re also mostly like Gavin when push comes to shove they’ll side with Corpos every time.
Americans are experts are shooting themselves in the foot. Or better yet, cutting their noses off to spite their faces.
Americans had the opportunity to make Trump irrelevant in 2024 and didn’t take it.
It wasn’t permitted by the establishment. They needed to keep the US pro Israel.
Maintaining a genocide was a higher priority than stopping fascism.
They’ll find some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory once again…
Ok doomer
Just looking at history, man.
I would be very happy to be proved wrong about this…
Fuck Bill Clinton as well, it’s way passed his time for the spotlight.
He is bubbah the Trump penis locator. And since he plays the sax, he can blow. LOL. Let’s get out there and vote!! I voted by mail already. Now see how they planned things…voting by mail is nice and cozy. You get as much time to research and read at your kitchen table or living room couch. Now let’s see you go out there and vote…suddenly miserable weather, Colorado for example has floods right now but they still need to vote. Here, its freezing 39C outside right now. Nice move, but you had options. Now go vote in freezing weather. And oh take PTO. We’re not making this a holiday or having it on a Saturday or Sunday. The point is to prevent you from voting. So vote!!!
I voted this past Saturday at a library.
You have to have PTO to take it. I voted IRL already.
Funny how fuck Bill Clinton gets downvoted.
Why don’t they use Woody Allen too?
I love Bill Clinton. He was awesome. If official WH bj masters were a thing, I’d support that. If it was our first woman president and she needed some stress relief, why not.
But the old mental pile of sunscreen, that guy is a pedo and everyone knows it. He’s gotta go.
Clinton appeared on Epstein’s private jet at least 16 times between 2002 and 2003.
Enough not to use him anymore.
Unless he’s saying, yeah, I saw him down there… He was doing that…
Come again?
Clinton is a horrible person, but he likely has a lot of dirt that the right will have a harder time to ignore. Saying you saw what you saw is stronger than giving the right documents to read.
The cons are going to go after anything vaguely ACORN-shaped so hard after this…
Georgia is expected to go blue for the senate and Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina are all within 10pts. The only only southern states are Florida, Tenessee and Arkansas.
Georgia is expected to go blue for the senate
I’m really annoyed that the governor’s race doesn’t seem like it’s in play, since nobody seems to be talking about it.
Wish we had a better candidate than KLB.
Polls show D+0.1 for GA governor. Nate Silver has a 63% D win
I’m glad to hear it, but I’m still worried. Admittedly, I insulate myself from advertising pretty well, but I haven’t heard nearly enough negative about the fascist billionaire candidate. Aside from how it would make it even worse if he won, I almost wish he were a more obvious villain like Greg Abbott or Ron DeSantis.
(Not to mention, as an Atlantan who’s been disappointed with her for a decade, there aren’t nearly as many reasons to vote for Bottoms, as opposed to against Jackson, as I’d like. Still held my nose and early-voted for her, but I can think of half a dozen candidates I would’ve preferred even just drawing from Atlanta city councilpeople.)
One can hope.
