Currently, Putin could use a NATO response, depending on what it is, as justification for mobilization and continuing his war. Probing NATO is not only about disrupting NATO.

You can see in Ukraine how they use terror to break Ukraine, not realizing it makes them more committed and united. The same flaw is in their theory and approach towards European nations. They hope sabotage and terror will push insecurity and fear, disagreement and reduction of support.

This airport is apparently a significant military or Ukraine support hub. So there is a pretty direct benefit too, as well as hope of criticism of support to Ukraine, because of security or economic risk.

An attack on drone production that sends to Ukraine would fulfill multiple goals in their eyes. A retaliation could give justification for mobilization and continuation.

Personally, even in the event of a direct attack with soldiers on land, I expect NATO and EU will act decisive but careful. Not necessarily with retaliation, only with defense. They’re driven by policy and reason. Unlike Russia.

Which, despite plenty of evidence and indication, continues the same strategy at great loss, cannibalizing and destroying itself. Even the “elite” corruption gains, which are still a thing, becomes increasingly volatile and at risk.