- cross-posted to:
- europe@lemmy.dbzer0.com
- cross-posted to:
- europe@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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The problem is that each attack is treated as a separate incident against a separate country. The evidence is investigated nationally, the condemnation is issued nationally and any response is left to the country attacked. The campaign against Europe is broken into isolated cases, making a collective response politically much harder.
And it is a collective response that is the best way to respond to these attacks and force Russia into some kind of restraint. Europe should treat every confidently attributed Russian operation as part of an attack on European security, then select a collective and proportionate response from an agreed ladder of measures.
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The term “hybrid” once described a useful fact. Russia mixes sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, political interference and deniable kinetic attacks. Sure, the mix is hybrid but the political effect of the label has changed.
It makes acts of violence sound ambiguous, manageable and somehow less real. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys put it plainly: “Russia’s attacks against us are no longer hybrid. They are very kinetic.”
Radosław Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, spoke in a similar vein, saying on Thursday that “Russia’s hybrid war against Europe has already taken on a ‘kinetic’ dimension” and that these are “on the border between hybrid warfare and outright aggression."
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Donald Tusk has warned that Russia could strike NATO territory and then present the incident as “accidental”. The official story, he said, would be that there was no reason to consider a NATO response.
That’s the point. Russia wants Article 5 to appear, in Tusk’s words, “more theoretical than practical”. The immediate target may be a train, factory, airport or undersea cable but the strategic target is the credibility of collective defense. The Kremlin also wants to break European unity and wear down support for Ukraine.
NATO already accepts that a hybrid operation could, in some circumstances, trigger Article 5. The obstacle is political. Allies examine each incident separately, so almost every operation appears too small to justify a collective response.
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Europe must reverse that calculation. An attack intended to divide European countries should bring them closer together. An operation designed to weaken Ukraine support should automatically produce more weapons, funding or air defense for Ukraine. Every Russian attempt to frighten one country should trigger a visible response from all.
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Europe should mirror russia’s attacks and mockery. A train derails in Germany and russia is quick to say “false flag” - The next week a train derails in russia and NATO says “false flag”. russia pays European teenagers peanuts to start forest fires? NATO pays russian teenagers burn shit in russia. A drone crashes in the Baltics and putin blames Ukraine? A drone crashes in russia and NATO smirkingly blames belarus.
Doing the same thing to Europe done to the US. Ratchet up the right wing propaganda, push for nationalism, get right wing leaders elected, increase internal tensions, make a ton of the budget go to military spending while the countries start to fall apart….
All of the pieces are there, the troll farms just start pushing the right buttons over and over. These attacks are just another button to push.
Rusia is looking for an excuse to start a mobilization that needs in Ukraine, UE leadership know what the game is and have chosen what they believe is the smartest.
Highly recommend listening to what Vladdy the proppo master said today.
It’s the exact same playbook as before the Ukraine invasion. Deny, deflect.
But what really stood out to me is that he is not well. Like not in a having a cold way. This may be more of a brainwashed KGB agent executing his final promise.
Also note he says he won’t attack Europe, but he omitted that he doesn’t really recognise the former soviet states, now European states as proper Europe.
I think he will let the winter pass and keep this “stop hitting yourself posture”, see what the midterms bring and then in spring Lithuania, Estonia and Lavltvia seem like a likely target, so he can conjoin Kalingrad again and bring a warm water port into full war posture.
Even the idea of St. Petersburg being an important Russian
warm waterport is outdated. With Finland and Sweden now in NATO, their use of the Baltic sea is entirely dependent on NATO allowing it as a direct result of their own actions. Finland and Sweden would never have joined NATO without the Russo-Ukrainian war.It’s not outdated, it’s flat out wrong. IIRC the Baltic sea freezes, neither St. Petersburg not Kaliningrad are warm-water ports.
Yes, let’s all be more afraid and more panicked. Especially if you’re far away from the frontline. Panic and fear is the exact combination that always leads to the most rational decisions. Just look at the US after 9-11 and Israel after october 7th.
well, we are both leading a hybrid war, Nato through Ukraine support, russians through sabotage.
Hitler attacked Poland by mistake. it was just a minor border incident
cooler spruch!
My guess is they have some kind of deal with either North Korea or China that in case they get attacked by Nato or another country they’ll help Russia, and now they’re trying to get attacked
Nah, China is far too happy with the current situation, they get to export truckloads of drones and drone materials to Russia and get oil/gas/natural resources, same deal for NK.
Both also get a larger influence of Russia/China
If the small sabotage acts we’ve heard of are all they can come up with I frankly don’t care. If they could do more they would - and if they haven’t so far they most likely won’t in the future. That’s if these acts of sabotage are actually Russian, not all false flags from the military-industrial complex because they want to sell their toys.
Hank Scorpio: “And to prove i’m not bluffing, watch this” (bridge blows up)
You, for some reason: “Maybe it just collapsed on it’s own”
The bigger issue right now is the social media manipulation. How big a role is Russia playing in AFD getting elected, or in Marine Le Pens current success?
And how big a role is internal bigotry and lack of conviction from the criminal justice system?
Le Pen got off easy in the courts and the AfD are arguably breaking anti Nazi laws but the powers that be are doing very little to stop it.
It’s the same with Reform and the racist mobs in the UK. The police do fuck all about the blatant corruption and riots but the left gets labeled terrorists and geriatric priests get arrested and their homes raided.
It’s very easy to blame all of our woes on Russia, and I don’t doubt they’re gleefully looking on and helping where they can. But the main problem is internal, it’s our own people, not the propagandised bogeyman used to justify giving more powers to those already failing to use their power defending democracy and liberalism.
‘Look me in the eyes. What country is Oceania at war with?’
Winston thought. He knew what was meant by Oceania and that he himself was a citizen of Oceania. He also remembered Eurasia and Eastasia; but who was at war with whom he did not know. In fact he had not been aware that there was any war.
‘I don’t remember.’
‘Oceania is at war with Eastasia. Do you remember that now?’
‘Yes.’
‘Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Since the beginning of your life, since the beginning of the Party, since the beginning of history, the war has continued without a break, always the same war. Do you remember that?’
‘Yes.’
19842026 by George Orwell
