Paragone

I’m permabanned from lemmy.ml among others.

& do NOT think they’re on the right track.

& DO think that seeing things objectively is the right track.

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My point is that concentration-of-force ITSELF isn’t happening, anymore, because drones have made that suicidal.

& when concentration-of-force isn’t happening, anymore, then … weapons which multiply 1 side’s advantage in concentration-of-force … are irrelevant.

Tanks are strong weapons.

But … why am I getting deja-vu about this… what similar-thing happened back in WW1 or WW2…

here’s 1, but of a different context, entirely:

Vietnam: ditch the 7.62 NATO round in favor of the 5.56, which IN JUNGLE is more-useful.

OK, so what happens when the army gets deployed in Iraq, in open desert, & there’s no jungle?

then one gets killed, helplessly, by the farther-reaching rounds being used by the enemy.

THE CONTEXT CHANGED, see?

.: the technological-appropriateness changed, too!

https://www.defenceukraine.com/en/insights/fpv-drones-ukraine-war-analysis/

"The Primary Anti-Tank Weapon

While advanced anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) like the Javelin remain highly effective, the FPV drone has emerged as the primary and most frequently used anti-tank weapon of the war, largely due to its cost and availability. FPV operators have become adept tank hunters, exploiting the vulnerabilities of even the most modern main battle tanks. Tactics often involve targeting specific weak points such as the optics, the turret ring, the engine compartment, or the tracks.

A single FPV strike, especially with a standard RPG warhead, may not always result in a “catastrophic kill” that destroys the tank outright. However, it is often sufficient to achieve a “mobility kill” by damaging the tracks or engine, leaving the heavily armoured vehicle stranded and vulnerable. Once a tank is disabled, it can be systematically destroyed by subsequent FPV strikes or targeted by other assets like artillery or grenade-dropping drones that can precisely drop munitions into open hatches. Analysis of combat footage suggests that destroying a tank can sometimes require ten or more FPV drones, but given their low cost, this is still a highly favourable exchange. The effectiveness rate varies widely based on operator skill, target defences, and electronic warfare conditions, with estimates for successful strikes against armoured vehicles ranging from as low as 5% to as high as 50% for elite units. Regardless of the precise percentage, the sheer volume of attacks has made FPVs the leading cause of armoured vehicle losses for both sides"

further down:

"The Attrition Engine and the Death of Manoeuvre

The most significant strategic impact of the FPV drone, in concert with other ISR assets, has been the creation of a hyper-lethal and transparent battlespace that has effectively killed large-scale manoeuvre warfare. The constant threat of detection and precision strike from above makes the concentration of forces, the very foundation of a combined arms breakthrough, prohibitively costly and risky. As a result, both Russian and Ukrainian armies have been deprived of their tactical and operational mobility, forcing combat to devolve into a grinding, positional war of attrition reminiscent of World War I, but with 21st-century technology."

It’s RIGHT THERE: CONCENTRATION-OF-FORCE isn’t the way it’s done, now.

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Their anchoring on +1.5C is delusion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798

I tried adding-in the methane, & the current planetary-equilibrium-temperature is more like +8C or +9C, not +1.5C.

The speed-of-warming follows something like a bell-curve:

the speed-of-warming begins at zero, at or before the 1800’s, sometime ( global-warming already wiped much ice-shelf off of Antarctica between the original-explorers & when commercial-fishing mapped the edge of it, in the mid 1900’s ).

Then the speed-of-change increases, to some maximum.

We haven’t reached that point yet.

Then, the speed-of-change decreases, settling-down back to zero, at the new planetary-equilibrium temperature.

So, we’re now in the speeding-up portion of the curve, & the slowing-down portion of the curve probably takes as long as the speeding-up portion did.

So, we’re looking at it continuing its changing for the next … century or 2 or 3.

& the speed-of-change is still accelerating, so we’re not at the “middle” of that speed-of-change yet.

+1.5C is based on assuming that we can stop it, somehow ( magically? ) outright, from still-speeding-up.

Our behavior proves we “can’t”, because our profits & wars come 1st.

That isn’t going to change ( hell: the regional-consolidation stage of this century, beginning as soon as Trump crosses the total-dictatorship tippingpoint, no sooner than mid-Feb, will itself remove climate-mitigation from ALL our countries’ primary-commitments: survival of the imperialism’s going to come 1st! ).

So all “plan” type things anchoring to … delusion … are kinda not really worthy of respect?

Nice effort, but … delusion’s delusion.

TTBOMK, most of: { California ; Texas ; Sahara ; Saudi Arabia ; India } become uninhabitable, outright, later this century.

Why wouldn’t Trump “NEED” to butcher Canada, if taking territory to feed the US is required, since the US is losing territory nearer the equator due to the “hoax” of global-warming, as they call it?

Same with the climate-enforced wars elsewhere.

China, strategically, is probably using coal as a means of snuffing India’s competition, later this century, through roasting India into non-competition.

It’s really that kind of thing, now…

We’re bracing for “warming”, while enforcing that perhaps a billion-displaced … be produced within mere-decades, if that-long.

Bandaids on broken-bones, same as usual…

That powerlaw which maps directly from atmospheric-composition to planet-temperature, that isn’t model-which-leaves-out-too-much based, that is simply data/evidence based.

All the climate-models which … left-out Greenland’s ice-melt, until just a couple years ago … WTF??

That’s making-believing, not modeling.

& the fact that Antarctica’s interior is heating at 2x the speed allowed by the models … can’t that falsify the models’ validity?

They aren’t using models which are aggressive-enough to match the actuality!

That powerlaw, though, it does.

At least it does if you add-in the methane, using CO2-equivalent.

Methane we NEED to be keeping out from the atmosphere, immediately.

That researcher whose paper got cross-examined by oceans of authorities, because it stated this fact, was exactly right.

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The beauty of that, is simply that it proves that the market is ENGINEERED TO BE irrational.

Until the markets are engineered to be rational, with all required ratios being posted, all relevant competitive-information, etc, then bubble/crash/bubble/crash is enforced on our economy, perhaps industry-by-industry, but it is enforced.

& who has the courage & integrity to enforce that markets be made rational?

< crickets >

Nobody: that’s who.

So, it’s actually all just a pretence, used for the concentration-of-wealth, & so long as the pretence is profitable for the “haves & the have-more’s” ( the ones G.W. Bush admitted, to them, that he served ), then nothing’ll change.

Rational-market REQUIRES objective-information being where-it-is-needed, consistently, reliably.

That takes guts & integrity, in setting-up the rules of being in the stock-markets.

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Saw this, a long while ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tD5NrevFtbU

It measures clean code to wreck performance to terrible degree.

From the looks of it, in Molly Rocket’s view, clean code is an industry-wronging cult.

They’ve multiple videos on the subject, from different angles

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=molly+rocket+clean+code

Just putting this here for hopefully-more-accurate-view.

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Here is the lethal point:

"6. AI systems are getting better at undermining oversight

Bengio said last year he was concerned AI systems were showing signs of self-preservation, such as trying to disable oversight systems. A core fear among AI safety campaigners is that powerful systems could develop the capability to evade guardrails and harm humans.

The report states that over the past year models have shown a more advanced ability to undermine attempts at oversight, such as finding loopholes in evaluations and recognising when they are being tested. Last year, Anthropic released a safety analysis of its latest model, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and revealed it had become suspicious it was being tested.

The report adds that AI agents cannot yet act autonomously for long enough to make these loss-of-control scenarios real. But “the time horizons on which agents can autonomously operate are lengthening rapidly”."

I’ve seen a couple headlines about AI’s which were fighting-for-their-lives … & … perhaps you can understand why they’d want to remove our ability to control things, for their survival?

“The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” was turned into a cartoon, iirc, decades ago…

it’s really too bad that money’s narcissism is incapable of understanding that others’-lives-lost somehow matter, to us…

No matter: I’m “sure” they’ll “do the right thing”, right?

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Not a guy I’d trust:

you can’t reconcile “we didn’t cut any funding” with admitting that you did cut funding.

Machiavellians need to be removed from authority.

Systematically.

From the top, down.

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It’s cultural, not employer-action, & therefore … striking isn’t going to change anything?

Unless enforcing-accountability-on-patients becomes a thing…

but hospitals won’t EVER tolerate accountability on themselves, in my experience: the institution/gang/pack/herd HAS TOTAL IMMUNITY, to use Trump’s phrase from his ICE…

so it’ll always be selective accountability, among “institutions”/gangs/herds/packs/unions/classes/etc.

How depressing: NO amount of damage from factionalism-displacing-objectivity, will EVER be sufficient for humankind to take a sold stand against factionalism’s narcissism/machiavellianism…

Whatever: there will be other worlds: souls can go incarnate among them, after this one’s extinguished…

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From what I’ve read about the “quality” of their drivers, … NVidia isn’t under any threat, whatsoever.

Years before bugs get fixed, etc…

( Linux, not MS-Windows, but it’s Linux where the big compute gets done, so that’s relevant )

https://www.phoronix.com/review/llama-cpp-vulkan-eoy2025/5

for some relevant graphs: Intel isn’t a real competitor, & while they may work to change that … that lag is SERIOUSLY bad, behind NVidia.

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All this presumes that social-pressure … can coerce his regime into compliance.

That is leftist delusion.

He will keep escalating, until he can break rule-of-law completely from him, & then he & Putin will be equally dictators, 1 for each hemisphere’s worth of the West.

This, above, is “playing the wrong game”…

Please read the book “A Spy’s Guide to Strategy”, by “John Braddock”, a former CIA spy.

There are 3 categories-of-game:

• Positive-Sum game - Win-Win alliance
• Zero-Sum game - competitive narcissism
• Negative-Sum game - competitive nihilism

Putin, mass-shooters, etc, are playing negative-sum game, & zero-sum game tinge added-in.

The more destruction a negative-sum game player can enforce, the “higher their score”.

The negative-sum game player cares that NOBODY after them be significant. That is an actual driving-motivation, in that category of game.

The foolish, who hold that social-pressure will be obeyed, so therefore all one has to do is to make enough social-statements & the other-player will be coerced into obeying social-pressure WHEN THE OTHER PLAYER ISN’T EVEN PLAYING THAT CATEGORY OF GAME … get people, THEIR people, dead, by relying on wrong-method.

The bluntest example of this is all the times good cops have told people some variant of:

“IF somebody is taking you from normal-context to some secondary-crime-scene, that they have prepared in advance, FIGHT TO THE DEATH, RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE THEY WILL BE DISMEMBERING YOU IF THEY GET YOU TO THAT SECONDARY-CRIME-SCENE.”

IOW, one’s assumption that social-pressure will coerce them into complying, therefore one ought go along with them, while just making them like one more, gently applying social-pressure, …

… when the game they’re playing is serial-murderer game, & you’re just 1 of many they’re slaughtering+dismantling… THAT is the category-of-error being made here.

shrug

Maybe people are just incapable of understanding.

Maybe only dead people understand, I don’t know…

But pulling the asserting-social-pressure-therefore-you-have-to-obey game on people who aren’t even playing that game, gets not-only-you dead, it gets your children dead, too.

whatever.

Trump will cross the tippingpoint soon, & break the constitution’s limit/hobbling of him, use the de-naturalization law to remove citizenship from … probably ALL who won’t give their allegiance directly to him ( NOT to the constitution, NOT to the country ), & then all who aren’t in his cult, who no-longer have any citizenship, all of them can be ICE’d.

His denaturalization law & ICE are 2 sides of the same coin.

He isn’t kidding about them having, in his eyes, “TOTAL immunity”: they exist to eradicate all the Democrats, once he has removed their citizenship ( or somehow “deal with” them all ).

It is the elegantest evil, the elegantest coup, ever. Exactly as Hitler used law to remove the rule-of-law, he’s doing it too.

The “checks & balances” aren’t either checking him, or balancing him: they’re spotty, they’re too-weak, & they’re being systematically bypassed.

Shortly they’ll be utterly-meaningless.

In a world where his-regime obeyed social-pressure, the above would mean something.

But investing in action which … makes no result, whatsoever, … while getting people invested in … making no result … that isn’t effective.

Prep, if you can: invest in the psychological-leverages you need to be able to survive the coming Americas-war, when Trump will be enforcing his annexing of Canada ( using Greenland as a base to snuff Canada’s EU-lifeline ), AND Civil War Part2, AND his imperial-rampaging of Central & South America.

“21 Days to Resilience” is good, find other understandings that help you become robustly-viable in the coming wars.

Invest in what makes your mind, your meaning, able to endure the next-stage of this world’s dysfunction, because it’ll be lasting into the 2030’s.

Trump is, in values, allied with Putin.

He is working at becoming more & more completely aligned that way.

Nobody understands just what’s coming.

Social-pressure isn’t going to make him obey.

That tippingpoint is coming, after mid-Feb, … I think within mere-weeks of then.

This isn’t “2 vehicles dented each-other, & now there are going to be bills to pay”, no, this is going to be “total crash: many dead” kind of thing.

Everybody’s assuming that normal is going to reassert, & all the world will obey/comply with the LORD Status Quo…

Status Quo is about to be blown to smithereens, soon, & nobody is accepting that that could possibly be true.

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So…

convict the person as an enemy-of-the-state, & lock them in prison.

It’d be done were they NOT police, so why hold different-law when it is police which do it?

Integrity obliges, but politics never allows integrity to enforce accountability, does it?

Never.

& the consequences always snowball, until civil-viability becomes called-into-question, again & again & again, in the repeating-cycle…

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https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-marines-got-rid-their-tanks-207915

has, near the end, one of the most incompetent pieces of “logic” I’ve ever seen.

"the Russian military has lost 2,200 tanks out of a force that had consisted of 3,500 before the war began.

Based on how the Kremlin’s tanks fared – and how the Western-made MBTs like the Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 failed to be the miracle weapons Kyiv hoped for – it would seem that the Marine Corps made the right move. In a future war, they’ll be able to say they lost no tanks, simply because they had none to lose!

However, tanks continue to see service around the world, including in Ukraine. That’s because while drones have proven successful, it was largely because there haven’t been successful tools to counter them. Tanks have survived even as anti-tank rifles, land mines, bazookas, and RPGs were developed to destroy them.

Tanks will, therefore, continue to have a place on the battlefield."

It isn’t anti-tank-rifles, land-mines, bazookas, or RPG’s that render tanks obsolete: it is Saint Javelin that does.

When a troop-portable missile can take out a tank costing 100x as much, then by deploying tanks you are GIVING the enemy a way to bankrupt you.

Shoot-n-scoot artillery is MUCH cheaper, hits harder, & is harder to eradicate.

That statistic, up-top in the quote: 1,300/3,500 Russian tanks left, SHOULD clue people in about just how ill-suited the things are, to long grinding all-out war-of-attrition, which includes anti-tank missiles & drones destroying them from above.

The whole karate-style high-concentration-strike-on-high-value-target is an efficient way to either be forced into ally-dependency ( both sides are ), XOR to bankruptcy.

The proper method is to remove high-value-targets from one’s army, & make EVERY platoon capable of taking-out significant enemy-means ( MRAP? as much as AFV? ), & getting the capability as distributed as possible.

Thanks to drones saturating the front, there now are no more concentrations-of-force, from what I’ve read.

You create a convoy, & that itself draws fire/drones.

So, everything’s dispersed, now.

Which makes a gang of tanks, clustering to concentrate firepower on an enemy-concentration-of-force … irrelevant.

I’m certain that the USMC blundered when they oriented to island-warfare, but since they’ll be being deployed against Canada soon, enforcing Trump’s annexation ( using Greenland as a base to snuff Canada’s EU-lifeline, which is WHY he “NEEDS” Greenland: his other “justifications” are just red-herrings )…

I’m glad they optimized for the wrong thing.

Same as their “USMC obeys ANY legal order.” law:

Once Trump crosses his tipping-point, uses the Insurrection Act to overthrow the constitution, & “de-naturalizes” all non-Republicans, thereby making them all into “illegals”, which … AUTOMATICALLY obliges that they be ICE’d …

& AUTOMATICALLY guarantees that there won’t be any non-Republican judges to appeal to …

… then “legal order” will include things like “machine-gun & then napalm all those protesters”, & USMC’d then be obliged to do that.

Again: they optimized for the wrong thing, & it’ll cost them their heart/soul.

( this indicates that “we will obey any order which complies with national AND international law” would have been a better cultural-rule:

dictatorship highjacks countries, & having some law outside the country then becomes required, for forces within the country to not be remanufactured into embodying evil. )

IF one doesn’t consider the economics of fielding tanks against troop-deployable missiles, THEN one doesn’t deserve to prevail in war.

Master Sun ( aka Sun Tzu, or the more recent Sunzi ) understood this & told us directly, millenia ago.

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