- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
NBC News’ Decision Desk has characterized the Alaska Senate race as likely Democratic. GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan currently trails Peltola, with both under the 50% mark.
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote-counting continues in the state.
Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News Decision Desk has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win the race.
If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.
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With >95% of the votes in:
- Mary Peltola (D) is at 49.8% (138,240)
- Dan S. Sullivan ® at 46.1% (127,828)
- Gerald L. Heikes ® at 2.1% (5885)
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (I) at 1.6% (4560)
- and write-ins at 0.3% (855)
Not to mention that when 75% of the votes were counted, there was no huge break for the Big Sullivan in ranked-choice.
“>95%” at this point is conservative – which, to be clear, I’m glad decision desks exercise caution. Outright 50% majority at this point, I’m not so sure, but ranked-choice seems exceedingly likely if it comes down to it.
Just, of course, stating my personal opinion regarding the current count, having been keeping up with it.
Edit: Peltola just climbed to 49.9% 40 minutes ago. Now 140,637 to Big Sullivan’s 129,424.
Fuck yes!!! 🙌
Those poll workers still on the job counting votes are probably starting to get pretty resentful about her opponent still not conceding.
- There’s no reason for the Big Sullivan to concede; it would be a beyond-stupid move when no decision desks have called it.
- Conceding doesn’t mean the poll workers stop counting votes. There still needs to be an official total. And even if it goes to ranked-choice on the 18th, that’s all computerized.
I think people get this deeply mistaken idea that decision desk calls, concessions, etc. somehow freeze the count and codify the result, but they don’t. At best, a candidate conceding is a tacit promise that they won’t contest the results by e.g. seeking a recount.
Conceding an election is just a polite convention. All votes still need to be counted.
With Alaska’s ranked choice voting, once they start counting preferences (second, third choice) there’s potential for those numbers to change dramatically.
They finish counting concession or no, if the candidate dies, etc. There needs to be an official count.
