NBC News’ Decision Desk has characterized the Alaska Senate race as likely Democratic. GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan currently trails Peltola, with both under the 50% mark.

NBC News’ Decision Desk has characterized the Alaska Senate race as likely Democratic. GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan currently trails Peltola, with both under the 50% mark.

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote-counting continues in the state.

Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News Decision Desk has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win the race.

If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.

  • TheTechnician27@lemmy.worldEnglish
    15·
    20 hours ago

    With >95% of the votes in:

    • Mary Peltola (D) is at 49.8% (138,240)
    • Dan S. Sullivan ® at 46.1% (127,828)
    • Gerald L. Heikes ® at 2.1% (5885)
    • Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (I) at 1.6% (4560)
    • and write-ins at 0.3% (855)

    Not to mention that when 75% of the votes were counted, there was no huge break for the Big Sullivan in ranked-choice.

    “>95%” at this point is conservative – which, to be clear, I’m glad decision desks exercise caution. Outright 50% majority at this point, I’m not so sure, but ranked-choice seems exceedingly likely if it comes down to it.

    Just, of course, stating my personal opinion regarding the current count, having been keeping up with it.

    Edit: Peltola just climbed to 49.9% 40 minutes ago. Now 140,637 to Big Sullivan’s 129,424.