• Compared with earlier influence operations, these attacks increasingly involve physical violence.
• The threat to merchant ships has become acute in the Black Sea off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria.
• The Swedish Armed Forces say Europe must prepare for a prolonged confrontation.

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An investigation conducted jointly by Swedish public broadcaster SVT and the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) found that at least 54 physical hybrid attacks or plots took place in Europe between April 1 and October 15, 2026, which authorities or journalists have linked to Russia.

Poland, Romania and Latvia recorded the highest numbers of such incidents.

These cases represent only part of the hostile activity linked to Russia. The tally excludes cyberattacks, influence operations and conventional espionage, as well as incidents that security agencies have not publicly disclosed.

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The Actual Number May Be Higher

The journalists behind the EBU investigation emphasize that incidents documented through public sources do not provide a complete picture of Russia’s hybrid activities.

The investigation’s broader dataset covered hundreds of reports from 17 European countries. Incidents were assessed both by their nature and by the evidence linking them to Russia.

Russia has repeatedly denied involvement in sabotage and hybrid attacks in Europe. Moscow’s Foreign Ministry has, in turn, accused Western countries of waging a hybrid war against Russia.

An earlier investigation by SVT and the EBU, published last year, identified 60 hybrid attacks linked to Russia in 2024 and 2025.

Although this year’s 54 incidents indicate intense activity over a much shorter period, the two investigations do not support a precise conclusion about how quickly the number of attacks is growing without further comparison of their counting methods.

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