Apparently AI under the control of a rogue actor is undoubtedly going to kill us all with a synthesized virus.
Let me run you through how brain rotted the world is now that this is even being taken in the slightest seriousness.
You cant just prompt an AI model, hey make me a humanity ending virus, no mistakes and send it to the printers. That’s not how reality works. To generate a world ending virus. You will need the following chain of events. If each one fails, the whole chain of events fail.
Step A: AI generates a viable novel pathogen sequence.
Highly unlikely without massive human intervention and iterative wet-lab feedback. Let’s say 1% chance for a non-expert using public tools.
Step B: The sequence is stable enough to be synthesized and remain infectious.
Many generated sequences are nonsense or unstable. Probability of viability: 5%.
Step C: It bypasses DNA synthesis screening (Know-Your-Customer rules).
Screening is imperfect but effective against known dangerous motifs. Probability: 10%.
Step D: The actor has access to a BSL-3/4 lab capable of handling high-consequence pathogens.
You forget extensive of testing of the novel virus canidates is needed so you can validate the virus’s virality. You can’t do this in a garage. You need specialized infrastructure, containment, waste disposal, and ethical blind spots. Probability for a random bad actor: <0.1%.
Step E: The virus achieves optimal transmissibility AND lethality simultaneously.
Biologically, these often trade off. High lethality usually kills the host before they spread it widely. Finding the “sweet spot” is incredibly hard. Probability: 1%.
Step F: It spreads globally before detection/response.
Modern surveillance, travel restrictions, and medical response are faster than in 1918 or 2020. Probability of total global saturation before countermeasures: 5%.
Any one of these fail and you dont get an outbreak.
Total Probability:
0.01 ×0.05 ×0.10 ×0.001 ×0.01 ×0.05 =0.00000000000025%
And before you say state actor will do this. They already can if they want to.
Unless you have a source for all of those numbers, this is just “I think it’s unlikely and here are the things I perceive as obstacles.” Adding made-up numbers to them is just noise.
I was about to also ask where these numbers are coming from.
lol there is no source bro, its a educated guess. no one has a robust study on viability of some guy setting up a secure wet lab. All im saying is … its kinda a joke that “AI will kill us all because its going to engineer a deadly virus”.
https://youtu.be/r7l0Rq9E8MY
ok sure i’ll bite, either tell me where i can source these numbers or tell me why im not allowed to make an educated guess or what part about these probabilities are you disputing as completely logically unsound. come on, i’ll wait for your response. otherwise fuck outta here you big tech shill
That’s your problem, not mine. If you don’t even know where to look, don’t spout off.
You’re allowed to say whatever you want, and I’m allowed to call it nonsense. I see no reason to call your guesses educated.
The fact that you’re providing literally no basis for them. I could just as easily make your post and change all of the numbers to 100% and I’d have exactly as much evidence as you do.
I’m not even saying that your conclusion is wrong. I’m saying that your argument is stupid. You might as well have said “LLMs won’t eradicate humans with a virus because Mickey Mouse came to me in a dream and told me so.”
my argument is stupid because ? you still haven’t said why ? all you said was … well i can call you stupid because i can do whatever i want.
btw can i ask if you have mental retardation ?
Your argument is stupid because you used a bunch of numbers that you made up. I said that very clearly.
No, that was after I repeatedly pointed out that you just hallucinated the probabilities.
I assume that you can, yes.
ohhh ok. so the AI is going to create a virus and kills us all that Dario is preaching. He totally didnt make that one up yeah ?