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Numerous examples illustrate [a] looming threat. Last week, Belarus held a four-day military drill along the Polish-Lithuanian border as Ukraine reported that Russia was using Belarusian relay stations to guide drone attacks on targets in western Ukraine. That same week, NATO assets shot down a drone coming from Belarus outside the Lithuanian city of Kaunas.

Earlier this month, Germany stated that Russia was behind a drone attack targeting Ukrainian cargo planes at the Leipzig/Halle airport in August.

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The goal, the [European] Commission said, is to exploit states’ vulnerabilities, “without necessarily triggering a formal state of war”.

“We should be under no illusions about what is happening here: hybrid threats facing Europe are less and less hybrid and less and less threats,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during her September address to MEPs in Strasbourg.

The recent acts of sabotage and drone incursions are leading some leaders to harden their discourse. Earlier this month, EU High Representative Kaja Kalla said the Leipzig/Halle attack had “all the characteristics of state-sponsored terrorism”.

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Last Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told national lawmakers Russia could strike countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland, using drones and missiles and pass them off as accidents. A day later, French President Emmanuel Macron said the “nature of Russian aggression and the threats in Europe are changing”, after briefing party leaders and presidential candidates on national security ahead of the 2027 elections.

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NATO defines hybrid threats as a combination of military and non-military, as well as covert and overt, means, including disinformation, cyberattacks, economic pressure, deployment of irregular armed groups and use of regular forces.

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Russia has so far targeted European countries within what some experts call a “grey zone”, below the threshold that would trigger a conventional response.

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To better address the Kremlin’s strategy against EU countries, von der Leyen last week proposed a “counter-hybrid playbook” as part of the highly anticipated European Security Strategy.

The mechanism will help capitals react to “incidents” that fall “below armed conflict but clearly threaten our national security”, the Commission chief said, adding it would resemble NATO’s Article 4.

But some argue that too much clarity could serve the Kremlin. For Jamie Shea, a former NATO deputy assistant secretary-general, “being too clear about levels of response takes away the ambiguity which is key to deterrence, keeping your opponent guessing”.

The aggressor could then continue provoking and disrupting up to a certain level without worrying about the response, he added.

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While some experts say escalatory war rhetoric could fuel Moscow’s escalation, the ISW argues Europe’s current language constrains Western responses and signals tolerance to Moscow.

The multiplication of incidents is also testing the efficiency of Europe’s current deterrence and carries the risk of “unintended escalation”, Linas Kojala, the head of the Vilnius-based Geopolitics and Security Studies Centre, said.

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