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Cake day: August 2nd, 2026

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  • In war you can have all the advantages you can think about and still lose. Overconfidence about military supremacy has a huge cost if the war proceeds.

    Germany in WW1 entered it avoiding attempts at deescalation, because it was overconfident it would overwhelm France and Russia. Both France and later USA had to withdraw from Vietnam. For recent example Russo-Ukranian war had Russia at clear advantage in manpower and industry, but we know now in retrospect, that it was not a couple of week pacification campaign as even myself was convinced it would be.

    I guess that statement was likely a diplomatic posturing, but keep in mind that military conflicts very rarely go according to plan. The only certain thing that happens is human suffering inherent to military conflicts.