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Cake day: March 5th, 2024

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  • It seems like they are running out of time.

    They are running low on war material and are basically going from factory to front, but their production rate is 1/10 of their loss rate. We’ve already seen drops in losses (like artillery systems) compared to months ago, as they don’t have replacements, and have to lower the quantity they use.

    Their economy is imploding (interest rates just hit 20%). The non-defense industry can’t pay for their loans and 1/3 of companies are at risk of bankruptcy in the next 6 months. But they can’t stop the war or their economy (held up by defense industry) will crater into a deep recession.

    Their population is indifferent to the war, and doesn’t want to sacrifice more to help fight it. So unlikely to accept another mobilization or increased hardships.

    And Ukraine just got approval to use foreign weapons in Russia.

    So, yeah, Russia is probably a bit stressed at the moment.


  • They lost a lot at the beginning. Now they are left with what they can produce new and refurbish from storage.

    I’ve seen estimates of this being 300 to 2000 tanks annually (1 to 6 tanks daily). Since they are in a big push right now they are likely using up their operational reserves that they built up over months.

    So they can afford to lose more tanks than they “produce” daily, but how long they can keep up this attrition rate up is unclear. I’ve seen estimates that they have 3000ish tanks left in field/reserve/storage.

    However, it’s unclear what condition these stored tanks are in. They likely used the newer tanks and those needing the least refurbishment first, leaving the only the dregs (old and heavily damaged) left.

    Edit: added a couple clarifying words.