I think counting on a coconspirator to become rational and brave is a hope. He’s president for life though and lives in a literal villain lair. Miles of impassible mountains with one way in patrolled by heat seaking drones and all matter of radio and seismic sensors, and an frigid ocean patrolled by everything up to nuclear submarines on the other. I’d put about as much faith in it as I would waiting around for natural causes or a jilted lover, a disgruntled chef, or whatever dumb luck might bring the world closer to peace.
To add to this, I think Russia has already committed to losing at least ten million people if hot war breaks out, and for Putin that would be like no big deal if it got him a good enough strategic advantage, whether it’s pushing back NATO or undermining democracy. That is to say, I hope it won’t take an utter humanitarian catastrophe to rock Putin’s goons hard enough to turn on him.
Oh I see what you’re saying, I thought the term was more literal than you’re suggesting.
I suppose the US president could launch a retaliatory strike based on a first strike that is still in the air, which is launch on warning, but the policy is to wait for a first strike and then have the president issue an order.
My understaning of launch on warning is any policy with no discretion, based on standing orders, not that it was necessarily strictly computer automated. The US policy is “hair trigger alert” which means that the strike systems are constantly in ready state, awaiting a valid order.
All I mean to say is that this is unlike the Russian system, which upon detecting an incoming missile issues valid, pre-approved orders to launch, with perhaps a human needed only to turn the key, but with no built in discretion once the pre-approved order is authenticated. The US does not have pre-approved launch orders.