How Much Do LLMs Hallucinate in Document Q&A Scenarios? A 172-Billion-Token Study Across Temperatures, Context Lengths, and Hardware Platforms
arxiv.org

Evaluating 35 open-weight models across three context lengths (32K, 128K, 200K), four temperatures, and three hardware platforms—consuming 172 billion tokens across more than 4,000 runs—we find that the answer is “substantially, and unavoidably.” Even under optimal conditions—best model, best temperature, temperature chosen specifically to minimize fabrication—the floor is non-zero and rises steeply with context length. At 32K, the best model (GLM 4.5) fabricates 1.19% of answers, top-tier models fabricate 5–7%, and the median model fabricates roughly 25%.

  • how_we_burned@lemmy.zipEnglish
    1·
    2 days ago

    I understood a few of those words.

    Basically you’ve validated the study that LLMs make shit up, right?

    • SuspciousCarrot78@lemmy.worldEnglish
      3·
      2 days ago

      Well…no. But also yes :)

      Mostly, what I’ve shown is if you hold a gun to its head (“argue from ONLY these facts or I shoot”) certain classes of LLMs (like the Qwen 3 series I tested; I’m going to try IBM’s Granite next) are actually pretty good at NOT hallucinating, so long as 1) you keep the context small (probably 16K or less? Someone please buy me a better pc) and 2) you have strict guard-rails. And - as a bonus - I think (no evidence; gut feel) it has to do with how well the model does on strict tool calling benchmarks. Further, I think abliteration makes that even better. Let me find out.

      If any of that’s true (big IF), then we can reasonably quickly figure out (by proxy) which LLM’s are going to be less bullshitty when properly shackled, in every day use. For reference, Qwen 3 and IBM Granite (both of which have abliterated version IIRC - that is, safety refusals removed) are known to score highly on tool calling. 4 swallows don’t make spring but if someone with better gear wants to follow that path, then at least I can give some prelim data from the potato frontier.

      I’ll keep squeezing the stone until blood pours out. Stubbornness opens a lot of doors. I refuse to be told this is an intractable problem; at least until I try to solve it myself.