The US-Israeli war was meant to fracture Iran along ethnic lines. Instead, the opening phase of the assault suggests Washington misunderstood a key reality: diversity does not equal fragility.

cross-posted from: https://news.abolish.capital/post/33867

The US-Israeli war was meant to fracture Iran along ethnic lines. Instead, the opening phase of the assault suggests Washington misunderstood a key reality: diversity does not equal fragility.

Wars involving large and diverse states often produce a familiar assumption among outside observers: sustained military pressure will eventually expose internal fractures. Since the launch of the US–Israeli attacks on Iran, similar expectations have circulated across policy commentary and media analysis.

Many analysts predicted the war might activate Iran’s ethnic fault lines, particularly in the western provinces where Kurdish communities live near the Iraqi border and where several armed Kurdish opposition groups operate.

Yet developments inside Iran have so far defied that assumption.

Rather than triggering centrifugal pressure, the attacks appear to have reinforced a broader sense of national cohesion across many parts of the country – including regions that foreign analysts frequently portray as vulnerable to separatist unrest.

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