Since 2000, the value of the S&P 500 stock index has gained about 600%. Over the same period, inflation-adjusted worker earnings have climbed just 12.5%.
Things are much worse than the “official” stats are saying.
Then put some real analysis on the table and stop making scary fingers behind every stat you dredge up.
I’m tired of reading the “everyone’s lying to you and things are worse than you realize” line when I’m fucking alive in the world and can see for myself, at a personal level.
I don’t bother reading statistics if I’m just going to add a vibes-based modifier to scare myself.
Problem is the official definition of unemployment disregards the many who drop off the unemployment-insurance rolls, never qualified for unemployment-insurance to begin with so were never counted and those who are long-term unemployed to say nothing about the much more common problem of people with employment who are underemployed but who would welcome a stable full-time job.
Stats are great but go out and do some qualitative data gathering by talking to people. Shit is bad right now. It’s not getting better. Labor participation rate is at a lower than its been in decades which is another really concerning sign of the times.
Problem is the official definition of unemployment disregards the many who drop off the unemployment-insurance rolls, never qualified for unemployment-insurance to begin with so were never counted and those who are long-term unemployed
Because they’re not part of the labor force for reasons independent of a given economic cycle. If I’m on Long Term Disability because of some chronic medical issue, the number of job postings, the current interest rates, and prevailing wage rates won’t incentivize me to look for a job. If I’m retired, there’s not a lot you can do to the labor market to entice me back out of it. If I’m going to college for a professional degree, you’re not going to lure me back into a dead-end service sector job with a marginal change in job availability. If there’s a glut of construction jobs, that won’t impact my search for a nursing position or an IT gig.
Stats are great but go out and do some qualitative data gathering by talking to people.
Sure. But the conclusions you’ll reach are that people are sticky for reasons that have nothing to do with regional economic policy. Looking at U3 gives us a picture of prevailing trends among active job-seekers. Dragging in a bunch of people who aren’t looking for jobs doesn’t give us a clear picture of changes in job availability among people looking for work. You’re just muddying the waters to make the unemployment figure look scarier than it is.
U6 is around 8%. Pretty bad.
Things are much worse than the “official” stats are saying.
Historically below average.
Then put some real analysis on the table and stop making scary fingers behind every stat you dredge up.
I’m tired of reading the “everyone’s lying to you and things are worse than you realize” line when I’m fucking alive in the world and can see for myself, at a personal level.
I don’t bother reading statistics if I’m just going to add a vibes-based modifier to scare myself.
Problem is the official definition of unemployment disregards the many who drop off the unemployment-insurance rolls, never qualified for unemployment-insurance to begin with so were never counted and those who are long-term unemployed to say nothing about the much more common problem of people with employment who are underemployed but who would welcome a stable full-time job.
Stats are great but go out and do some qualitative data gathering by talking to people. Shit is bad right now. It’s not getting better. Labor participation rate is at a lower than its been in decades which is another really concerning sign of the times.
Because they’re not part of the labor force for reasons independent of a given economic cycle. If I’m on Long Term Disability because of some chronic medical issue, the number of job postings, the current interest rates, and prevailing wage rates won’t incentivize me to look for a job. If I’m retired, there’s not a lot you can do to the labor market to entice me back out of it. If I’m going to college for a professional degree, you’re not going to lure me back into a dead-end service sector job with a marginal change in job availability. If there’s a glut of construction jobs, that won’t impact my search for a nursing position or an IT gig.
Sure. But the conclusions you’ll reach are that people are sticky for reasons that have nothing to do with regional economic policy. Looking at U3 gives us a picture of prevailing trends among active job-seekers. Dragging in a bunch of people who aren’t looking for jobs doesn’t give us a clear picture of changes in job availability among people looking for work. You’re just muddying the waters to make the unemployment figure look scarier than it is.