An account trading under the username “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.
…Under U.S. commodity trading laws, making trades based on death and war are illegal, since those kinds of bets create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.
The general public has no power here except at the local level, just like when LLM’s decided they were just going to make taxpayers pay their electric bills. You’ll see some states regulate prediction markets, but that’s it. The Federal Government and the legislators there love being able to monetize their offices, so no change will come at the national level.