Lots of people scoff at the idea that Putin will escalate further, given their floundering impotence in Ukraine. You hear a lot of versions of “He won’t do it because he can’t possibly win in an open fight against NATO”. You’re thinking rationally, and not like he does at this point in time. It also badly misses the likeliest reason why he might do exactly that. There’s a reason why the CIA director made a surprise visit to Moscow this week.
Conquering the Baltics wouldn’t be the point. Shattering Article 5 and further corroding American divisiveness would be the prize. At least in his own sick, vile mind.
He doesn’t care about Russian lives. He probably cares more about harming NATO and the U.S. than taking land in the Baltics - but he would take whatever he can get. It’s possible he finally understands that he is not getting enough of Ukraine to justify what he’s done - and that he pivots to spiteful tantrum mode, as dictators losing wars of their own choosing have done many times before.
Having his forward forces wiped out by a strong NATO response isn’t really a strategic defeat, if the trade-off is that Trump does his job and uses it as a pretext to remove the U.S. from NATO.
Russia needs an off-ramp. They don’t deserve it, but from a saving face perspective they NEED one. And it can’t be “Welp, we tried to take all of Ukraine, but they put up a jolly good fight. Fairplay, little Ukraine. We’ll go home now”. They can’t lose to Ukraine. But - they ARE allowed to lose to NATO. And it would STILL be a credible victory from a russian perspective if the U.S. and NATO split, even if it were only temporary and conditional as long as their stooge Trump remains upright and in control.
It’s more likley than most people realize that some kind of attack happens - and the outcome on the battlefield probably isn’t what matters. A NATO fracture before Trump dies or is neutered or any limp response to an attack is a win, regardless of how many men, machines or territory is lost.
Its a bad idea - it might force Eastern NATO like Finland, Poland and Romania to act unilaterally, and it certainly will cause London, Paris and Berlin to alter their calculus. The U.S. is a non-factor until they grow up a bit - which is maybe never. But here you are. It seems very unlikely to improve anything for Russia - but what’s good for Russia strategically and what keeps Putin alive for another 6 months aren’t necessarily the same thing. It’s dangerous to think he won’t do it simply because their army would lose.
Thoughts?
You’re right. We don’t know when or how it will happen but we know it will happen. This escalation already has been predicted for two years now, by the way.
An angle you missed in your summary is internal dynamics in the ruzzia, pissed of oligarchs and the likes. There probably is not much resistance left in the ranks but the system the ruzzian Führer created breeds killers and psychopaths that wait for their moment. (There’s a reason the poo is hiding in bunkers, and it’s not out of fear of american bombs like in Iran, and Ukraine, as clever as they are, will never get through to him personally.) This fear of internal attacks drives the Führer probably more mad (he’s clinically insane, no doubt) than the anger over NATO or other neglectible threats (China is a much bigger threat to the ruzzias autonomy than NATO leaders, and he knows that.)
In short: This ape is making a big show to keep the other apes in his horde from attacking him. It’s as primal and primitive as it can get.
It doesn’t take any particular genius to see it, and you’re right it’s not new. The moderators already yell at me for too much editorial anaysis, but it’s a good point you’re making. The threat is internal, not external. Creating situations for potential coup plotters to expose themselves to early is a good way to root them out.