The argument for current LLM AIs leading to AGI has always been that they would spontaneously develop independent reasoning, through an unknown emergent property that would appear as they scale. It hasn’t happened, and there’s no sign that it will.
That’s a dilemma for the big AI companies. They are burning through billions of dollars every month, and will need further hundreds of billions to scale further - but for what in return?
Current LLMs can still do a lot. They’ve provided Level 4 self-driving, and seem to be leading to general-purpose robots capable of much useful work. But the headwinds look ominous for the global economy, - tit-for-tat protectionist trade wars, inflation, and a global oil shock due to war with Iran all loom on the horizon for 2025.
If current AI players are about to get wrecked, I doubt it’s the end for AI development. Perhaps it will switch to the areas that can actually make money - like Level 4 vehicles and robotics.
I don’t think anyone in the industry thought LLMs were going to reach AGI. But LLMs will be useful as part of an AGI framework. That’s the current focus in the industry.
It’s what Altman has constantly said was going to happen. Up to you to decide if he’s actually in the industry or not.
When has Sam Altman said LLMs will reach AGI? Can you provide a primary source?
He said it again a few days ago on a Reddit AMA.
Perhaps the most interesting comment from Altman was about the future of AGI - artificial general intelligence. Seen by many as the ‘real’ AI, this is an artificial intelligence model that could rival or even exceed human intelligence. Altman has previously declared that we could have AGI within “a few thousand days”.
When asked by a Reddit user whether AGI is achievable with known hardware or it will take something entirely different, Altman replied: “We believe it is achievable with current hardware.”
You’ve completely misunderstood as others have pointed out to you. It’s great that you want to learn about this stuff, but you have a long ways to go before you are at a point to talk authoritatively about it. The best thing for you to do now is to set aside all your preconceived notions and start from the beginning with an open mind. There is no point in talking authoritatively before you spend some time learning.
Oh no, the technology that is literally just a glorified text prediction that gives you random guesses about what word comes next, based on what was in the text you trained it on, can not scale to have an independent reasoning?
Color me surprised, who would have thought?
