JPMorgan warns fertiliser shortages and a super El Niño could keep global food prices high into 2027, with coffee, sugar, and cocoa driving US grocery costs.
That’s not going to change the price of fertilizer, growing your own is going to get expensive too.
Like, shit is accelerating the shortage, but it was happening anyways. And there’s legitimately no solution. There’s things we can do to mitigate it, but it’s just kicking the can down the road at this point.
Like, you know how people always said “we grow enough food, it’s a distribution problem”…
That’s not going to be true for much longer, the planet just can’t support anywhere near this amount of humans without fertilizer, and we’re running out. We need multiple kinds, and the ones we can “make” are made from finite resources.
Shits going to get rough, and gardens are not going to fix it.
but I thought, if you’re doing it right, you wouldn’t need any.
I mean…
Most people don’t just plant straight in the ground, they bring in “top soil” that’s already fertilized.
If you just clear out grass and plant veggies, you might get a couple seasons without it, but probably not. Grass is terrible for soil quality and whatever you get isn’t going to be much.
But even if you bring in top soil and do a raised bed, eventually the soil depletes, and you can either add fertilizer or replace the top soil which is the same thing.
You’ll get something but not a lot, so especially in the context of a garden with a high enough yield to effect a grocery bill, it’s going to need a huge amount of land without fertilizer, meaning a lot more water and a lot more labor.
Even if you’re trying to grow in harmony with a nitrogen fixer that’s just part of the equation.
Edit:
I just don’t think most people have an half acre of more land to devote to a garden without fertilizer. But some people do.
Don’t worry! The people in charge who have been making this a problem since agriculture was invented and whose only solution was ever doing violence to some new ‘frontier’ will save us. No change required.
A colleague of mine is an avid gardener and, grew all his own fruit, veggies, and coffee, on a much smaller block than that. He also kept chickens, so I believe he used their poop as fertiliser. Also, eggs!
That’s got a crazy amount of nitrogen, but that’s still just one of the big three…
I spent winters shoveling literally tons of manure onto a field by pitchfork until I went to college. So deep it was literally just a field of shit by the time it was down, a solid 3-4 inch coating for acres.
We still fertilized multiple times a season on top of that. But that was land that had been worked for generations. For a couple of years, replacing nitrogen is fine…
Because people haven’t been growing crops there.
What happens in a decade when all of that is used up? That’s my entire point, it’s kicking the can down the road. If someone doesn’t think this is a giant issue, they’re in denial or haven’t really thought thru what’s happening.
There’s a reason hillbillies don’t like trespassers, it take a lot of land to feed a human.
…
That’s not going to change the price of fertilizer, growing your own is going to get expensive too.
Like, shit is accelerating the shortage, but it was happening anyways. And there’s legitimately no solution. There’s things we can do to mitigate it, but it’s just kicking the can down the road at this point.
Like, you know how people always said “we grow enough food, it’s a distribution problem”…
That’s not going to be true for much longer, the planet just can’t support anywhere near this amount of humans without fertilizer, and we’re running out. We need multiple kinds, and the ones we can “make” are made from finite resources.
Shits going to get rough, and gardens are not going to fix it.
How much industrial grade fertiliser do you need for a home garden? I’m no gardener, but I thought, if you’re doing it right, you wouldn’t need any.
Zero.
I mean…
Most people don’t just plant straight in the ground, they bring in “top soil” that’s already fertilized.
If you just clear out grass and plant veggies, you might get a couple seasons without it, but probably not. Grass is terrible for soil quality and whatever you get isn’t going to be much.
But even if you bring in top soil and do a raised bed, eventually the soil depletes, and you can either add fertilizer or replace the top soil which is the same thing.
You’ll get something but not a lot, so especially in the context of a garden with a high enough yield to effect a grocery bill, it’s going to need a huge amount of land without fertilizer, meaning a lot more water and a lot more labor.
Even if you’re trying to grow in harmony with a nitrogen fixer that’s just part of the equation.
Edit:
I just don’t think most people have an half acre of more land to devote to a garden without fertilizer. But some people do.
Don’t worry! The people in charge who have been making this a problem since agriculture was invented and whose only solution was ever doing violence to some new ‘frontier’ will save us. No change required.
A colleague of mine is an avid gardener and, grew all his own fruit, veggies, and coffee, on a much smaller block than that. He also kept chickens, so I believe he used their poop as fertiliser. Also, eggs!
That’s got a crazy amount of nitrogen, but that’s still just one of the big three…
I spent winters shoveling literally tons of manure onto a field by pitchfork until I went to college. So deep it was literally just a field of shit by the time it was down, a solid 3-4 inch coating for acres.
We still fertilized multiple times a season on top of that. But that was land that had been worked for generations. For a couple of years, replacing nitrogen is fine…
Because people haven’t been growing crops there.
What happens in a decade when all of that is used up? That’s my entire point, it’s kicking the can down the road. If someone doesn’t think this is a giant issue, they’re in denial or haven’t really thought thru what’s happening.
There’s a reason hillbillies don’t like trespassers, it take a lot of land to feed a human.
So what you’re saying is shit’s fucked? I guess we’ll just have to eat the rich then.
Learn about nitrogen fixers. Ground cover between crops is all the fertilizer you need.
You can also compost your food scraps and your poop, but the nitrogen fixers are the major source of long term nitrogen.
Almost like making it a real problem was the point all along.