this is a disaster that can’t continue forever

I thought the same about blockchain. And to an extent, I was right. Nobody’s talking about Bitcoin or Etherium (let alone NFTs) any more except the major weirdos who are still stuck in their own weird echo chamber. But the price of Bitcoin is still alarmingly high for something with literally no value. Largely because it’s being propped up by despots.

But more than that, I think the AI bubble is basically just a continuation of the blockchain bubble. Several companies with warehouses full of graphics cards eventually found it unprofitable to mine cryptocurrencies. Needing a way to salvage their profits, they took stock of their assets (lots of graphics cards) and considered how to salvage their situation. A stupid scammy bubble worked the first time. Why not a second time? And thus the AI bubble was born. A bubble which made use of… lots of graphics cards.

You’re right that the AI bubble can’t exist forever in its current form. But who knows what’s next? Quantum computers? (That’s already kindof happening.) Human brain cells in a jar used for computing? (Wired just had an article about that.) Dark factories? Some bullshit yet to be pulled from someone’s ass? (Not that all of these things are entirely bullshit. Some of them probably have more potential to be genuinely profitable than GenAI. But they also definitely have the potential to be sold in half-baked (or less-than-half-baked) forms atop a mountain of unjustified hype. And to be made the new cornerstone of an even more precarious economy.)

Blockchain was a bubble. And it’s… less influential than it was. (Not dead, but fizzling out.) But it didn’t really “pop” the way you’d expect a bubble to pop. It turned into another bubble. My worry is that the AI bubble won’t pop. It’ll pivot. And it won’t be the same. (I don’t really fear that I’m going to be forced by my employer to start supporting Bitcoin payments on our e-commerce site.) But it probably won’t be better in any real sense.

I fear we may be living in a “bubble bubble”. As in, the commodity that is being greatly overvalued and propped up by despotic governments is no longer a specific niche industry, but rather the production of bubbles themselves. It’s gone meta. (And I don’t mean Zuck. Well, yes I do. But you know what I mean.)

(Sometimes when I comment in this thread, folks ask me “is this just you speaking or is it the official opinion of /c/fuck_ai?” Just to head that question off, this is just me talking on my own behalf. Not on behalf of the community.)