I don’t see that happening. I’m fairly confident that the other Republican candidate votes had the incumbent as second choice, and it looks like that would be enough to put him in the lead. Also the other Dan Sullivan votes are likely having the incumbent be second choice.
Would love to be wrong, but that’s my assumption of how the rankes choice votes are leaning
Last week, the New York Times published an analysis of ranked-choice ballots cast in Alaska, showing that Peltola likely would earn more votes than Sullivan should the race advance to ranked-choice tabulation. Each Alaska voter got to choose up to two candidates out of the four Senate candidates on the ballot, with each choice ranked as the voter’s first or second choice.
Two-thirds of Daniel J. Sullivan’s supporters ranked a second choice, with most of those voters supporting Ms. Peltola in subsequent rounds — an indication that they were not intending to vote for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, as voters who chose the incumbent senator first rarely ranked Ms. Peltola second.
That’s true if you just add percentages. But ranked choice includes the possibility of “exhausting” your ballot by just not listing a second or third or fourth choice. That’s how Peltola won her house seat initially. When you think about it as a vote gap of 4000ish votes with 9000ish votes to be gained in arbitragr, Dan has to win about 50% of all of those ballots. He’ll almost definitely get 50% of the non-exhausted ballots, but the analysis I’ve seen of the RCV results released to date shows him falling well short so far of 50% of all ballots once exhaustion is accounted for
Come on AK!!
I don’t see that happening. I’m fairly confident that the other Republican candidate votes had the incumbent as second choice, and it looks like that would be enough to put him in the lead. Also the other Dan Sullivan votes are likely having the incumbent be second choice.
Would love to be wrong, but that’s my assumption of how the rankes choice votes are leaning
It’s looking good for her!
https://ictnews.org/politics/election-2026/alaska-senate-race-tipping-toward-peltola/
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/peltola-leads-both-sullivans-combined-as-she-heads-to-victory-in-alaska-contest/
More votes from “the other Sullivan” go to Peltola than to Sullivan + she will probably win befor RCV.
Oh great, then the Trump admin will pull the trigger on the lawsuit saying the stunt spoiled the election.
Court says no!
That’s true if you just add percentages. But ranked choice includes the possibility of “exhausting” your ballot by just not listing a second or third or fourth choice. That’s how Peltola won her house seat initially. When you think about it as a vote gap of 4000ish votes with 9000ish votes to be gained in arbitragr, Dan has to win about 50% of all of those ballots. He’ll almost definitely get 50% of the non-exhausted ballots, but the analysis I’ve seen of the RCV results released to date shows him falling well short so far of 50% of all ballots once exhaustion is accounted for
Not sure if you are cheering on a state, or the weapon Tyler used inexpertly
AK - Two Letter Abreviation for Alaska.
AK-36 or whatever - a gun-thingy.