Sources
- Census release (Oct 1, 2026): https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf
- Census private construction table (includes Data center row, Table 3 SEs): https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf
- Census definitions: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/definitions.html
- Census Feb 2024 notice that Data center is published under private Office: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/pr202402.pdf
- BLS PPI, Aug 2026 summary: https://www.bls.gov/beta/nextgen/ppi/producer-price-index-2026-09-10.htm
- BLS PPI release, Sept 2026 (Oct 15, 2026): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
- BLS series via FRED, NSA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PPIFDC ; SA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PPIDCS
How can you tell the recession already started?
K shaped economy. By all traditional metrics the biggest winners in the economy are disproportionately propping it up.
*gestures at everything.
On an individual basis when wages don’t keep up with inflation, it feels like a recession. When retail sales are down, services spending is down and business spending is down, except for ai, it feels like a recession.
It’s a K shaped economy. While the wealthy privateers and traditional metrics say “everything is fine, don’t worry” you have other hard working people sliding down hill. Everyone feels it, the traditional numbers don’t show it because the real economy and private markets are detached.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_shapes#K-shaped