AI investment has helped keep markets and economic growth ticking along, but the IMF fears the boom could quickly turn to bust if the promised profits fail to materialize. With tech giants borrowing billions and investors piling into the same handful of companies, a selloff could leave more than just Silicon Valley nursing a hangover.
The whole AI bubble is just one big bet: “AGI is around the corner and will replace all white collar jobs”
Now, LLMs get slowly better but aren’t AGI and it’s unclear if our current approach is even capable of reaching AGI.
Sadly the US went ‘all-in’ on the bet and everyone except the ultra rich will feel the pain.
The lack of progress is one thing.
The value for money is another: AI companies are still burning through vast sums of capital, while users are indeed using the products more and more… but still nowhere near at a price that would even cover the companies’ costs, let alone be profitable. If each token costs a few dollars, demand is likely to shrink significantly again… because as long as the systems operate stochastically and, logically, produce erroneous results, it may take a very large number of tokens to obtain a result that’s actually usable (this is especially true when using AI to replace workers whose tasks and skills you actually have no clue about).
So even if the bet materializes, we lose. If it doesn’t, we also lose because the economy implodes. Fun times.
Best thing about this whole AI bubble is that the mask is off and everyone can see. The rich will dump us in a instant.
AGI will never happen with LLMs, but if you think in terms of a human brain out can be effective language and output and image recognition module. But there’s no there there. Something else entirely is needed for true thought and sentience. But llm ai is already sufficient to translate machine thought into language sentences. You just need the spark of life that can actually think for itself.
I know it’s probably not intentional but you make it sound as if “just putting a spark of life” into the machine is easy
No, the spark of life implies something magical or unknown that you can’t make. Like a human can never make a spark on their own, you need something from the outside to make it or happen.
like god? \s
It may be easy. The issue is that nobody knows what that even means.