It’s mask off time for capitalism. Business to person sales are no longer lucrative. All the money is in company to company now. See AI companies buying out entire present and future stock of PC parts until 2030. Regular people are no longer needed in this form of society. That’s why the market goes up while job numbers and employment go down. The economy can now support itself without anyone else.
And now that they’ve had this incredible windfall, this is what they’ll expect from now on.
That kind of thinking has ruined lots of businesses, like the movie business. Titanic made ridiculous money, so now that’s all anyone wants to invest in. Why put your money in a smaller project that will make millions, when you can our the same money in a project that will make billions?
So great small movies never get made, while there are tons of crappy expensive movies instead, because the only real consideration was about the profit, never the art.
Except that it seems a lot of these trades are on-paper, and not involving the actual transfer of goods. The data centres aren’t getting built. The servers aren’t going in them. The power isn’t being supplied. The tokens are not being generated. At least… It’s only a fraction of what they are all saying.
Yes but who actually cares? If society tolerates no actual real physical transfer of goods and leaves it all speculative, it doesn’t matter. The deals are made, financial institutions accept this, realistically it doesn’t matter that none of this is “real”. If society decides that it’s real, it’s real. Just like how paper money has zero real tangible worth. It’s all an agreed upon concept. The same is happening here.
The economy we had for the last handful of decades is gone. Speculative economy where only the top percentage trades with itself is where we are at and where we will stay.
What you’re describing is not a structural change. What you’re describing has happened before. You’re describing a bubble.
I do think there is a structural change, similar to how there has been for the arrival of computers, the arrival of the internet, the arrival of covid and WFH etc. LLMs have changed how many people will work. However. They aren’t able to replace workers.
The onlystructural concern I have currently is that the models and processing power become out of reach for all but giant corporations and data centres. As there are open models and much of the changes are happening across many companies and individual programmers, I don’t see that happening. Perhaps the best models and training data will be out of reach but there are enough people vested in open source and proficient, that should things start to get out of reach and computing become less available, I’d expect that to change. Similar to how windows led to Linux which is now better.
It can’t be completely circular. There is an end customer that will expect something for their money eventually. Right now it’s driven by huge amounts of debt, but you can’t be on that forever. At some point it unwinds
It seems that end point is government bailing out banks using taxes, and people are paying more for the same due to inflation, while their salaries do not catch up with the cost of living.
The rationale for bail out the banks previously was that the retail arms (what you and I use) were so intertwined with the commercial arms that allowing the commercial part to fail caused the loss of everyone’s money. Regulation was introduced (at least in the UK. I don’t know about elsewhere) that ring fenced the two from each other, making future bailouts unnecessary. The commercial arm would shoulder the risk of its own investments.
Doesn’t stop corrupt politicians bailing them out though.
Nope. This can keep going on. Big businesses with all the capital will continue doing trade exclusively with other big businesses and government. They don’t need our money anymore. And it’s not like we’re really going to have any trivial amounts of money anyways.
There is zero evidence that this supposed AGI can actually maintain itself, let alone it’s owners.
If they trade goods with each other, but leave us to starve and die, they eventually won’t be able to buy food, coolant, maintenance, ANYTHING with their fake money.
I don’t see anything that can work in the real world yet.
It’s mask off time for capitalism. Business to person sales are no longer lucrative. All the money is in company to company now. See AI companies buying out entire present and future stock of PC parts until 2030. Regular people are no longer needed in this form of society. That’s why the market goes up while job numbers and employment go down. The economy can now support itself without anyone else.
Don’t worry, you’ll be able to rent your life needs with a subscription plan that will be only slightly unaffordable.
And now that they’ve had this incredible windfall, this is what they’ll expect from now on.
That kind of thinking has ruined lots of businesses, like the movie business. Titanic made ridiculous money, so now that’s all anyone wants to invest in. Why put your money in a smaller project that will make millions, when you can our the same money in a project that will make billions?
So great small movies never get made, while there are tons of crappy expensive movies instead, because the only real consideration was about the profit, never the art.
Except that it seems a lot of these trades are on-paper, and not involving the actual transfer of goods. The data centres aren’t getting built. The servers aren’t going in them. The power isn’t being supplied. The tokens are not being generated. At least… It’s only a fraction of what they are all saying.
Some auditor is going to have a field day.
Yes but who actually cares? If society tolerates no actual real physical transfer of goods and leaves it all speculative, it doesn’t matter. The deals are made, financial institutions accept this, realistically it doesn’t matter that none of this is “real”. If society decides that it’s real, it’s real. Just like how paper money has zero real tangible worth. It’s all an agreed upon concept. The same is happening here.
The economy we had for the last handful of decades is gone. Speculative economy where only the top percentage trades with itself is where we are at and where we will stay.
Who is actually going to be making the bread? Who is going to feed these delusional morons?
It’s going to implode, as they are just parasitic mass.
What you’re describing is not a structural change. What you’re describing has happened before. You’re describing a bubble.
I do think there is a structural change, similar to how there has been for the arrival of computers, the arrival of the internet, the arrival of covid and WFH etc. LLMs have changed how many people will work. However. They aren’t able to replace workers.
The onlystructural concern I have currently is that the models and processing power become out of reach for all but giant corporations and data centres. As there are open models and much of the changes are happening across many companies and individual programmers, I don’t see that happening. Perhaps the best models and training data will be out of reach but there are enough people vested in open source and proficient, that should things start to get out of reach and computing become less available, I’d expect that to change. Similar to how windows led to Linux which is now better.
It can’t be completely circular. There is an end customer that will expect something for their money eventually. Right now it’s driven by huge amounts of debt, but you can’t be on that forever. At some point it unwinds
It seems that end point is government bailing out banks using taxes, and people are paying more for the same due to inflation, while their salaries do not catch up with the cost of living.
This seemingly happens in US right now.
The rationale for bail out the banks previously was that the retail arms (what you and I use) were so intertwined with the commercial arms that allowing the commercial part to fail caused the loss of everyone’s money. Regulation was introduced (at least in the UK. I don’t know about elsewhere) that ring fenced the two from each other, making future bailouts unnecessary. The commercial arm would shoulder the risk of its own investments.
Doesn’t stop corrupt politicians bailing them out though.
Yeah, all this is illegal not because it’s an infinite money glitch, but because it acts like it is while destabilizing the economy
Well eventually someone has to consume something for all of this to make sense, no?
Also isn’t this more the result of unhinged capitalism without any real workers pushback?
Nope. This can keep going on. Big businesses with all the capital will continue doing trade exclusively with other big businesses and government. They don’t need our money anymore. And it’s not like we’re really going to have any trivial amounts of money anyways.
There is zero evidence that this supposed AGI can actually maintain itself, let alone it’s owners.
If they trade goods with each other, but leave us to starve and die, they eventually won’t be able to buy food, coolant, maintenance, ANYTHING with their fake money.
I don’t see anything that can work in the real world yet.
They’ll have their own teams of people catering to them. 99% of the population is now no longer needed
And what does that money represent anymore at that point?
Seems too many have forgotten that its the peasant’s labor that gives money any value.
Money doesn’t produce anything.
What’s the value of a dollar if it can’t buy you bread?
They don’t need our money anymore because they’ve already taken so much of our money.
That sounds like some future Quarter’s problem