If Russia was stupid enough to attack Lithuania (or other baltic state) like people think might happen, if they have not prepared properly (as of today, they are not), they could overwhelm the air defences and take out more strategic value than the $500 million cost.

…and then what? Invade with a vastly diminished force that was only minimally invested in because all the money went to shaheds? Again basically what can be done is an act of mass terrorism, but that doesn’t project power and it sure as hell doesn’t produce money which the russian economy is in desperate need of.

Edit: The only thing preventing that right now is the ongoing war in Ukraine, but if that ended, they could stockpile.

I mean yeah, if we just let russia sit there and pile up weapons it is going to be a problem.

“Fortunately” I don’t see russia being able to extract itself from the Ukraine war without getting severely fucked up (I say fortunarely in quotes because it sucks for Ukraine), russia’s air defenses are crumbling and it leaves the backbone of their military utterly exposed to very longterm damage. I am not saying there is no threat I am saying the anxiety around russia’s shahed production is seen under a very warped lens.

I agree Europe needs to prepare better, I don’t mean to come down against that either.

Edit: According to official Ukrainian data[1], the total number of Shahed-type UAVs launched by Russia in 2025 amounted to 54,538, including approximately 32,200 Shahed-type strike UAVs.

50,000 shaheds * $50,000 per shahed = $2.5 billion that would have been better spent on a more permanent aspect of the russian war machine, too bad they are obsessed with making flying murder bombs like it is a religion.

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/shahed_136_really_cost_20_50k_iran_sold_them_to_russia_for_200_300k_in_2022_actual_price_far_higher-17764.html