A new poll shows Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ® by 5 points over a month before the November midterm elections.
The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday showed Talarico with 49 percent support from voters and Paxton with 44 percent support, with 3 percent saying they are undecided. This new poll is the second in a monthly series of polling results released by TPOR. Last month’s poll showed Talarico’s ahead by 6 points, 48-42.
Independent voters favor Talarico by double digits, 58-26, with 5 percent who say they are undecided. Paxton holds the lead among white voters and voters 55 years and above. Talarico leads among Latino voters, Black voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, men and women, the poll stated.
Polls mean nothing!!! Get out and vote!!
It is insane how inaccurate they have been this midterm.
I think it is the increase in voter participation.
https://uspollingdata.com/news/voter-registration-2026/
I think it’s all fake news for dems to get complacent. Just another dirty trick from the Rs
All of the polling institutions are pretty aligned this time around, so that kind of discredits the “fake news” argument. Too many independent sources are saying the same thing.
That said, polls are based on historical data. And polls might not do a good job of trying to account for the abnormal fuckery that has been happening this cycle. Off cycle gerrymandering, purges of democratic leaning voters, scares about mail-in voting, etc.
People shouldn’t assume this is a lock. People need to show up in high numbers.
People also forget that most campaigns want to be able to claim they are ahead in the polls. Strong poll numbers can lead to the bandwagon effect, while trailing poll numbers can cause people to give up.
Too many people remember Hillary losing in 2016 but fail to consider the specific context of her being an unpopular candidate. Believing that your side is going to win isn’t normally a reason to stay home, unless you have some objection to the turd sandwich your side nominated.
So be encouraged by good polls, don’t be discouraged by bad polls, and then get off your and vote no matter what the polls say.
IMHO, Clinton v Trump is also the perfect example of normies not understanding how statistics and probability works.
Trump had a nearly 30% chance of winning. That’s a legit possibility of winning. If powerball had a 30% chance of winning, everyone would be running to buy a ticket.
People saw Clinton at 70% and seemed to think that was a lock. 70% odd isn’t a 100% chance of winning. It’s 70%.
That was just the FiveThirtyEight model. Most other models had Clinton in the high 90’s.
I don’t understand this thought process. Aren’t Republicans the ones always pushing the “don’t bother voting, you can’t win” rhetoric? Seems like this would have the opposite affect to me.
The statement is made because in the past there was a thought that only fucking idiots would elect Trump and so people protest voted or stayed home. Polls showed him losing.
So now polls mean nothing. What the media says means nothing. Get your fucking ass to the polling location and vote. In person.
Isn’t “We can win! Get to the polls and vote!” a more effective message?
I think “we will actually represent you instead of billionaires and Israel” is a better message. See: the wild success of Mamdani. But for $ome reason the democrat$ ju$t can’t $eem to manage that.
That doesn’t having anything to do with getting people to vote though…
Yes it absolutely does. So many people don’t bother to vote because they see the options as two sides of the same coin.
deleted by creator
I mean there are a bazillion things tried with Beto. Just because he didn’t win doesn’t mean zero of them worked.
When someone says “Don’t listen to the polls, get out and vote” it’s because we lived an experience where polls were wrong and people didn’t vote. It doesn’t matter what message is best. If you are thinking of not voting because the polls show candidate is a shoe in - then you arent paying attention.
What are you talking about? People say dumb shit for all kinds of dumb reasons.
Complacency